GEOPOLITICS18 July 2026· 18 min
Geopolitical Risk Scoring: An Applied Quantitative Model for Strategic Decision-Making
A rigorous, reproducible framework for quantifying geopolitical risk across 12 dimensions—combining hard data, expert elicitation, and machine-readable signals to produce actionable risk scores calibrated against real-world outcomes in Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Middle East.
SOURCES
[1]IMF World Economic Outlook 2023: Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism (IMF, April 2023)
[2]Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) — acleddata.com, weekly conflict dataset 2018–2024
[3]SIPRI Military Expenditure Database 2024 — Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
[4]Marsh & McLennan Global Risks Report 2023: Geopolitical Risk Perception Survey (N=1,500 risk managers)
[5]Stanford Internet Observatory / DFRLab: Influence Operations Tracker 2023–2024 Annual Report
[6]OFAC Annual Report on Sanctions Enforcement Actions, U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2023
[7]Boston Consulting Group: Resilience in the Semiconductor Supply Chain (BCG, 2023)
[8]Gartner Supply Chain Risk Management Survey: Technology Adoption and Response Times (Gartner, 2023)
[9]Bank for International Settlements Working Paper No. 1123: Reflexivity in Sovereign Risk Models (BIS, 2023)
[10]V-Dem Institute: Varieties of Democracy Dataset v13 — Polyarchy and Liberal Democracy Indices (University of Gothenburg, 2023)