GEOPOLITICS26 September 2026· 16 min
Geopolitical Risk Scoring: A Applied Quantitative Model for Strategic Decision-Making
Beyond gut feelings and color-coded maps: a rigorous, reproducible quantitative framework for scoring geopolitical risk across 12 dimensions, validated against real-world market dislocations in Taiwan, Ukraine, and the Red Sea corridor.
SOURCES
[1]McKinsey Global Institute — 'Geopolitics and the Geometry of Global Trade', 2024
[2]ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project) — acleddata.com, real-time event database 2024
[3]SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) — Military Expenditure Database 2024, sipri.org
[4]UNCTAD — 'Red Sea Crisis Impact on Global Trade', Trade and Development Report Q1 2024
[5]Control Risks — 'RiskMap 2024: Executive Survey on Geopolitical Risk', controlrisks.com
[6]Bloomberg Economics — 'Taiwan Strait Conflict Economic Impact Modeling', 2023
[7]World Justice Project — Rule of Law Index 2023, worldjusticeproject.org
[8]Transparency International — Corruption Perceptions Index 2023, transparency.org
[9]Freightos Baltic Index — Red Sea Freight Rate Data Q4 2023–Q1 2024, freightos.com
[10]KPMG — 'Russia Exit: Corporate Asset Write-Down Tracker', 2022–2023