GEOPOLITICS19 September 2026· 16 min
Geopolitical Risk Scoring: A Quantitative Model for Strategic Decision-Making
Beyond qualitative assessments, leading firms now deploy composite quantitative models to score geopolitical risk with precision. This premium guide delivers a replicable 7-factor framework, calibrated with 2023-2024 data, three corporate case studies, and a prioritized action roadmap.
SOURCES
[1]IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2023 — 'Fragmentation and Geopolitical Risk' Chapter, imf.org/en/Publications/WEO
[2]BlackRock Investment Institute, Geopolitical Risk Indicator Methodology & 2024 Mid-Year Update, blackrock.com/corporate/insights
[3]ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project), Data Export Tool — Mozambique 2018-2021, acleddata.com
[4]Baker McKenzie, 2024 Cross-Border M&A Report: Geopolitical Headwinds, bakermckenzie.com/en/insight/publications
[5]CSIS Cyber Incident Database (CSID), 2024 Annual Report on State-Sponsored Cyberattacks, csis.org/programs/strategic-technologies-program
[6]Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), Conflict Encyclopedia 2024, ucdp.uu.se
[7]World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), 2023 Dataset, info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi
[8]Allianz Trade, Country Risk Map & Methodology Update Q1 2024, allianz-trade.com/en/economic-research
[9]Harvard Business School, Desai & Dharmapala (2023), 'Political Risk Integration in Cross-Border M&A: Evidence from 2015-2022', hbs.edu/faculty/working-papers
[10]