GEOPOLITICS15 September 2026· 18 min
Geopolitical Risk Scoring: A Quantitative Model You Can Deploy Today
Beyond qualitative assessments, this guide delivers a battle-tested, 7-factor quantitative scoring model for geopolitical risk—complete with weighting methodology, calibration data from 12 country cases, and a tiered decision framework used by institutional investors managing $200B+ in cross-border exposure.
SOURCES
[1]IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2024 — 'Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism', IMF Publications
[2]Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), 2024 Annual Data Release — acleddata.com
[3]Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset v24.1, Uppsala University, 2024
[4]Bank for International Settlements, Locational Banking Statistics Q2 2024 — bis.org/statistics/bankstats.htm
[5]V-Dem Institute, 'Democracy Report 2024: Democracy Winning and Losing at the Ballot', University of Gothenburg
[6]OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA) Database 2023 Edition — oecd.org/trade/topics/trade-in-value-added
[7]Mayer, T., Zignago, S. (2023). 'Geopolitical Fragmentation and Global Trade: Quantitative Estimates', CEPII Working Paper No. 2023-14
[8]EU DisinfoLab & Stanford Internet Observatory, 'State of Influence Operations 2024' Joint Report
[9]Control Risks, RiskMap 2024 — controlrisks.com/riskmap
[10]Political Risk Services Group, ICRG Methodology Documentation v.12, PRS Group 2023