GEOPOLITICS1 July 2026· 16 min
Geopolitical Risk Scoring: A Quantitative Model for Strategic Decision-Making
Beyond qualitative heat maps, this premium guide delivers a replicable 7-factor quantitative scoring model tested on 12 real-world geopolitical crises, with measurable accuracy benchmarks and actionable portfolio-level recommendations.
SOURCES
[1]IMF World Economic Outlook 2024 — Chapter 3: Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Foreign Direct Investment (imf.org/en/Publications/WEO)
[2]ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project) — Global Conflict Dataset 2015–2024 (acleddata.com)
[3]SIPRI Military Expenditure Database 2024 — Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (sipri.org/databases/milex)
[4]CSIS Significant Cyber Incidents Database — Center for Strategic and International Studies (csis.org/programs/strategic-technologies-program/significant-cyber-incidents)
[5]BCG Crisis Management Survey 2023: Organizational Resilience in an Era of Geopolitical Volatility — Boston Consulting Group (bcg.com)
[6]V-Dem Institute — Varieties of Democracy Dataset v14, 2024 (v-dem.net)
[7]UN Comtrade Database — Bilateral Trade Statistics (comtrade.un.org)
[8]Fragile States Index 2024 — Fund for Peace (fragilestatesindex.org)
[9]Stanford Internet Observatory — Influence Operations Research (cyber.fsi.stanford.edu)
[10]World Bank Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism Indicator — Worldwide Governance Indicators 2024 (databank.worldbank.org)