GÉOPOLITIQUE24 septembre 2026· 16 min
Geopolitical Risk Scoring: An Applied Quantitative Model for Strategic Decision-Making
Beyond generic country-risk ratings, this premium guide delivers a reproducible, multi-factor quantitative model for scoring geopolitical risk—tested against three live case studies—with actionable thresholds that translate scores directly into capital-allocation and supply-chain decisions.
SOURCES
[1]McKinsey Global Institute (2024) — 'Geopolitical Risk and Global Value Chains: Quantifying the Cost of Disruption'
[2]SIPRI Military Expenditure Database 2024 — Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (sipri.org/databases/milex)
[3]IMF Working Paper WP/23/187 — 'Sovereign Rating Lags and Geopolitical Risk: Empirical Evidence'
[4]ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project) — 2024 Annual Global Conflict Index (acleddata.com)
[5]Kearney (2023) — 'Supply Chain Resilience Report: Quantitative Risk Models vs. Qualitative Assessment — A Benchmarking Study'
[6]V-Dem Institute (2024) — 'Democracy Report: Global Democratic Backsliding Indicators' (v-dem.net)
[7]DFRLab / Atlantic Council (2024) — 'Digital Forensic Research on Influence Operations in Sub-Saharan Africa'
[8]ADB (Asian Development Bank, 2022) — 'Semiconductor Supply Chains: Systemic Fragility and Geopolitical Exposure'
[9]Oxford Internet Institute — Computational Propaganda Project Country Reports 2023–2024 (oii.ox.ac.uk)
[10]UxC LLC (2023) — 'Uranium Market Outlook: Niger Coup Impact Analysis' (uxc.com)