GÉOPOLITIQUE31 juillet 2026· 16 min
Geopolitical Risk Scoring: A Quantitative Model for Strategic Decision-Making
Beyond gut-feel country ratings: a reproducible, data-driven framework that translates geopolitical volatility into actionable risk scores. Includes calibrated weighting matrices, real-world back-testing on Ukraine and Taiwan scenarios, and boardroom-ready decision triggers.
SOURCES
[1]World Economic Forum — Global Risks Report 2024 (weforum.org/reports/global-risks-report-2024)
[2]SIPRI Military Expenditure Database 2023 — Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (sipri.org/databases/milex)
[3]ACLED — Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, 2023 Annual Report (acleddata.com)
[4]McKinsey Global Institute — 'Geopolitics and the geometry of global trade', January 2024 (mckinsey.com/mgi)
[5]CSIS — China Power Project: PLA Naval Activity Tracker 2023–2024 (chinapower.csis.org)
[6]Political Instability Task Force (PITF) — Global Instability Database, George Mason University (pitf.gmu.edu)
[7]Boston Consulting Group — 'The Semiconductor Decade: A Trillion-Dollar Industry in Transformation', 2023 (bcg.com)
[8]Swiss Re Institute — Sigma Report: 'Navigating geopolitical uncertainty', 2023 (swissre.com/institute)